China says a lot of things.
Trump says a lot of things. Despite public statements about what he would do if China tries to blockade Taiwan—make tariffs on Chinese goods hugely painful—it isn’t super-clear what Donald Trump, if he again becomes our president, would in fact do in that case or in the case of an all-out mainland invasion of Taiwan.
Reuters (October 29, 2024):
Asked about Trump’s remarks earlier this month [saying that] he would impose additional, massive tariffs on China if China were to “go into Taiwan” and remarks on Taiwan having to pay for protection, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said Taiwan’s people had a clear understanding of U.S. policy.
“Whether the United States is trying to protect or harm Taiwan, I believe most of our Taiwan compatriots have already made a rational judgement and know very clearly that what the United States pursues is always America first,” Zhu Fenglian told a regular news briefing, referring to a common expression Trump uses about prioritising U.S. interests.
Taiwan’s people know that “Taiwan at any time may turn from a pawn to a discarded child”, she added, without directly using Trump’s name.
The United States is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself even in the absence of formal diplomatic ties between Washington and Taipei.
If Zhu’s idea is to affect the U.S. election, the tactic is not crystal-clear.
Perhaps, despite the assertion that Trump would stay out of the way of a blockade or invasion of Taiwan, which the Chinese government would presumably prefer, many Chinese officials assume that a Harris-Walz administration would be easier to cow and manipulate than a Trump-Vance administration. So Zhu could be saying what he is saying to discourage American supporters of the Republic of China from voting for Trump.
Or perhaps the utterance is just reflexive propaganda with no idea more specific than sowing anxiety, fear, and confusion among Americans and especially among the Taiwanese, China’s alleged “compatriots” (i.e., citizens of the same country, China, as Chinese officials always like to pretend, perhaps hoping to pound the Taiwanese into submission by repetition).
China wants to absorb Taiwan. Despite the contradictions in American foreign policy toward the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China, the United States has been helping the latter to defend itself from the former for decades. China’s mere announcement that it expects to be unhindered by the U.S. vis-à-vis Taiwan while Trump is on the job won’t make it so.
