“Nice country you got there; a shame if something happened to it” seems to be China’s implicit threat as it militarily circles and probes Taiwan, the island country to which Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang fled in 1949 and which China wants to annex.
Chris Buckley of The New York Times reports (“China’s Military, ‘Chasing the Dream,’ Probes Taiwan’s Defenses,” August 11, 2023):
China has been steadily intensifying military pressure on Taiwan over the past year, sending jets, drones, bombers and other planes farther and in greater numbers to extend an intimidating presence all around the island.
Chinese naval ships and air force planes have been edging closer to Taiwan’s territorial seas and skies, probing the island’s vigilance and trying to wear down its military planes and ships. Chinese forces have also been operating more frequently in skies and waters off the island’s eastern coast, facing the West Pacific. China’s increasing presence there signals its intent to dominate an expanse of sea that could be vital for the island’s defenses, including for securing potential aid from the United States in a conflict, experts say.
Chasing the Dream is a Chinazi documentary series in which China boasts of its military readiness and the willingness of its soldiers to die if necessary to reunify Taiwan with the mainland.
A former U.S. intelligence officer, David Sauer, suggests that although China is preparing for war, it would rather take over Taiwan without war. According to The Washington Times, he believes that the strategy “is to ‘hollow out Taiwan from within’ and ‘create chaos’ around the election to seat a president who will push the island toward unification with the communist mainland.”
Taiwan’s next presidential election is on January 13, 2024. In a May 23, 2023 article, the Guardian observed:
The incumbent Democratic Progressive party (DPP) and Taiwan’s opposition nationalist party, the Kuomintang (KMT), both oppose unification. But the KMT says the best way forward is to have friendlier ties with China, and accuses the DPP—which Beijing has refused to talk to since it came to power in 2016 —of worsening tensions.
The DPP says Beijing is intent on changing the status quo, demanding Taiwan choose between surrender or forceful annexation. It has spent years strengthening Taiwan’s international ties as Beijing increases its military aggression.
It is not hard to divine which approach China would prefer; it would prefer that Taiwan surrender.
