Screenshot from MERICS report on AI entanglements
MERICS has published a report on scientific research collaboration between Europe and China, particularly with regards to developments using artificial intelligence, and how such learning might be used by the Chinese government and military. The report explores the web of connections, and takes a looks at the flow of investments and returns, and how the collaborations are organized through university research and corporate partnerships. The report notes that China’s top collaborator is the United States, but that Europe is also heavily entangled. MERICS suggests that the ties not be cut off, but that more caution be built into the relationships.
Is it a dance with the devil?
Collaboration with China is challenging also because the CCP uses AI technologies to control ethnic minorities and society as a whole.20 AI’s role in human rights abuses in Xinjiang has led to increased scrutiny of R&D collaboration in the United States.21 In Denmark, a media investigation into research ties with Chinese partners, including with surveillance tech giant Hikvision on algorithmic public opinion monitoring, led to a multi-stakeholder effort to protect research security and integrity in international collaboration.22
Arcesati et al. “AI entanglements: Balancing risks and rewards of European-Chinese Collaboration”. MERICS. November 16, 2023.
Science | Business reviews the MERICS report, including noting this list of concerning research papers that have come from Europe/China collaborations:
For example, European researchers have collaborated with Chinese counterparts on topics like “negative mental-state monitoring”, “Cross-Ethnicity Face Anti-Spoofing Recognition”, “Group Abnormal Behaviour Detection” algorithms, “Containment of Rumor Spread in Complex Social Networks”, “integrated missile guidance” and drone “Target Tracking Method Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning”.
David Matthews. “Europe still working with China on military and surveillance uses of artificial intelligence, report finds.” Science | Business. November 21, 2023.
It’s Complicated
As the report suggests, many of the relationships are complex and therefore hard to reduce down into simple measures of who is winning more from these collaborations. And since research can lead to a variety of insights and applications, it is not always clear what good and bad will come from it, and how each country may end up deploying what is discovered. MERICS concludes that is a “two-way street”, saying that Europe and China both benefit.
But do they benefit equally?
While Europeans will find themselves ethically restrained from exploiting the technology, China will not. And since China is already one of the leaders in AI, if not the most advanced, the “two-way street” just gives China more of an advantage. Consider that China’s existing lead means they should be able to exploit new findings more quickly, and that to catch-up, Europeans would have to find innovative solutions that not only keep a linear pace with Chinese counterparts, but to accelerate their growth and learning to match China’s trajectory.
Such advantages can lead to a “Winner-Takes-All market”, where the best and fastest dominate (which is China’s goal). Farnam Street discusses the concept:
when we say a winner takes all, what we mean is that a single company receives the majority of available profits. A few others have at best a modest share. The rest fight over a miniscule remnant, and tend not to survive long.
In a winner-take-all market, the winners have tremendous power to dictate outcomes.
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