The most apt comments relevant to the New Jersey drone flap were made in October 2024 by Air Force General Gregory M. Guillot, commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). An interviewer paraphrased him as suggesting that “there were lessons learned from the Chinese surveillance balloon that passed over parts of the United States and Canada in February 2023.”
Let’s list the lessons learned as a result that incident. Although these are not exactly the lessons enunciated by the general, their logic is ironclad.
1. It’s a bad thing to let public sightings force you into publicly tracking an object, for then the public is measuring the object’s progress against your actions or lack of same.
2. It’s a bad thing to identify the object (e.g., a balloon), for then the public is measuring your intercept capabilities against the object’s defenses.
3. It’s a bad thing to identify the origin (nationality) of the object, for then the public may demand that you act against a foreign power.
4. It’s a bad thing to be forced to capture or destroy the object when you lack the skills and suitable weaponry to do so.
Freedom of (in)action
The government gains maximum freedom of (in)action when there is no public sighting, no identification, no origin story, no expectation of capture or destruction. The government actually “downplayed the overall significance of the balloon’s presence” by pointing out that this kind of thing has often happened before.
No public interference on those prior occasions. What the public doesn’t know won’t hurt (the government).
Guillot made his comment about “lessons” while discussing the December 2023 flap over drones flying over Langley Air Force Base in Virginia…again and again and again. Overflights began at dusk and continued for weeks. Regarding Langley, Guillot said that he “wasn’t prepared for the number of incursions that I see.”
More recently, the Wall Street Journal reported (as recapped in an October 14, 2024 Newsweek story), that officials had yet to determine whether the drones overflying Langley “belong to enthusiasts or are operated by countries such as Russia or China. U.S. officials are not convinced that hobbyists were behind the controls, with the drones flying in a pattern and using a frequency band not associated with easily bought, commercial drones.”
Not convinced in October. But now, in December 2024, in New Jersey, where Congressman Chris Smith has sounded an alarm about China, Russia, and Iran, we do have federal assurances.
“National security communications adviser John Kirby reiterated Monday there is no indication the recent drone sightings pose a risk to public safety,” reported Sarah Fortinsky.
“Kirby, in an interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier, said federal officials have worked with local and state law enforcement to examine more than 5,000 examples of possible drone sightings, and they’ve determined some aircraft are manned, while others are unmanned.
“They’ve also concluded, however, that the unmanned drones spotted in and around New Jersey are operating legally and for the purpose of the common good. They do not show any signs of foreign involvement, Kirby said.
“When asked how law enforcement could reach that conclusion, he replied that ‘we’ve done the analysis. We’ve done the detection, then the analysis. We’ve corroborated [?] the sightings.’ ”
Good, schmood
Federal officials have examined 5,000 incidents in a week or two, and every drone was found to be “operating legally and for the purpose of the common good.” Wouldn’t want to interfere with the common good. These drones “do not show any signs of foreign involvement,” at least not at night, in darkness.
Using our Chinese balloon template, we can look at the ongoing New Jersey events this way:
1. It was a bad thing for the government that the citizens drew attention to the objects.
2. It was a bad thing for the government that the public identified the objects as drones and asked that they be explained, captured, or shot down.
3. It is a good thing that the government has defeated any association of the drones with foreign states.
4. It is a good thing that the government is not now required to capture or destroy any drones.
So the government is applying the lessons of Chinese spy balloon to effectively reduce its accountability. As it gets better at this, it will reduce it to zero.
On December 15, DHS chief Alejandro Mayorkas said that he wanted “to assure the American public that we in the federal government have deployed additional resources, personnel, technology to assist the New Jersey State Police in addressing the drone sightings. I want to assure the American public that we are on it.”
He then called on Congress “to expand local and state authority to help address the issue.”
DHS is “on it.” They are assisting the police with technology that presumably will help identify the objects. On December 16, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said that the equipment provided by the federal government had yielded little new information. How did national security communications adviser John Kirby do the detection and analysis?
Kirby’s statements came on December 17. Case closed. Governor Murphy can return the equipment. DHS can pack up and return to D.C.
Would you believe Iranian and Chinese hobbyists?
Meanwhile, China analyst Gordon Chang notes that “These drones and this activity is too large, too well-organized to be the work of hobbyists. And that sort of leaves foreign powers. It could be Iran, it could be Iran in connection with China. But clearly, somebody is trying to absorb our attention.”
New Jersey State Senator Jon Bramnick sums up: “Whatever these drones are doing, the government really doesn’t want us to know.”
That is the sum of all lessons of the incident of the Chinese spy balloon. □
James Roth works for a major defense contractor in Virginia.
