Would most Tibetans in China-oppressed Tibet refuse independence from China?
No, they wouldn’t.
No matter what your theory of realpolitik may be vis-à-vis coping with a totalitarian state out to get you, it isn’t a good idea to make statements designed to appease this state which no informed persons—least of all the officials and functionaries committed to badmouthing you and oppressing your people—can possibly believe and which do not advance your cause.
It is plausible to say that the Dalai Lama and other Tibetans have given up the dream of an independent Tibet in light of the Chinese government’s set opposition. It is not plausible to say or imply that Tibetans don’t want to be entirely free of China or would reject a no-strings offer of independence.
But the revered Dalai Lama, who has been living in exile for decades, continues to pretend that “Tibetans want more autonomy, not independence or political separation from China” (The Hindu, September 25, 2023):
Tibetans are asking for more autonomy, but not political separation, asserted Tibetan leader the Dalai Lama. . . .
“We want to have full autonomy, as a part of the People’s Republic of China. Then we can help millions of Chinese, [without] political separation, and remaining a part of the People’s Republic,” the Dalai Lama said while speaking to a small group of journalists from Delhi that included The Hindu. He added jokingly that he could then “brainwash” the Chinese people as well, in a light-hearted response to Chinese allegations that the Tibetan Buddhist diaspora spreads “propaganda” about atrocities in Tibet by the Chinese government.
Such appeasement or half-appeasement doesn’t work. It didn’t, for instance, stop the Chinese Communist Party from undertaking a vicious global social-media campaign in April 2023 to smear the Dalai Lama as a pedophile. It hasn’t stopped the CCP from working to systematically destroy Tibetan culture and violate the rights of Tibetans. And it won’t stop the CCP from undertaking further campaigns against Tibetans generally or the Dalai Lama in particular.