Here’s a pipe dream: “If The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Were To Rein In Its Provocations, the Indo-Pacific Would Be a Much Safer Place” (Memri, November 12, 2024).
Or perhaps it would be better to say that although in the near term and long term, action by China to rein in its provocations is a metaphysical possibility, it is far from being a metaphysical certainty.
In its conditional form, the Memri headline is correct, of course. Moreover, although the truth of writer Andrew Masigan’s observation that China is being provocative in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, etc., is obvious to all who look, not everyone concerned with these matters cares to look or to accept what they see. Since dishonest persons sometimes confuse honest persons, one must keep stating the obvious.
Masigan considers China’s provocative actions toward Taiwan in particular.
National sovereignty
In a speech on October 10, 2024, to help celebrate the country’s National Day, Republic of China President Lai Ching-te declared, “Regardless of what name we choose to call our nation—the Republic of China, Taiwan, or the Republic of China Taiwan—we must all share common convictions. Our determination to defend our national sovereignty remains unchanged.”
Is this provocative?
Although governments act in defense of their countries’ national sovereignty, they don’t usually stress the fact of this sovereignty unless the occasion calls for it. The occasion always calls for it in the case of “the Republic of China, Taiwan, or the Republic of China Taiwan,” because the People’s Republic of China is always denying that the ROC is an independent nation and always trying to cow the people of the ROC into submitting themselves to the totalitarian rule of the mainland. And the PRC is just a few miles away.
Masigan reports that in retaliation against President Lai’s routine declaration, “Beijing circulated an animation depicting President Lai with pointed ears, as if he were a devil, with the map of Taiwan below him. A few seconds later, Lai’s image disappears, and the video shows Chinese jets, warships, and troops surrounding Taiwan. The 15-second video was an ominous warning. As the cartoon circulated on social media, on October 14, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army undertook massive military drills in and around Taiwan’s exclusive economic zone. The PLA announced that it had launched ‘punishment’ military drills code-named ‘Joint Sword-2024B,’ involving the army, navy, air force, and rocket force, in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, south, and east of Taiwan, as a ‘stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces.’ It was reported that the CCP used a record 153 military aircraft in the drills.”
Is the Chinese Communist Party being provocative here? Only if threatening to blow up somebody’s house in response to the owner’s claim that it is his house is provocative.
Masigan also quotes the inevitable Mao Ning, China foreign ministry spokesperson, gamely trying to mislead gullible minds: “Taiwan independence is incompatible with peace in the Taiwan Strait. And the provocation of the Taiwan forces will inevitably be countered.”
A response
Responding to CCP propaganda is wearisome job. But since the babbling has its effect on the mentally unprepared, it should not go entirely unanswered. Fortunately, it’s so repetitive that answering 0.001% of it dispatches the whole shebang.
Masigan makes three points:
One: “Taiwan’s independence is incompatible with peace.” The opposite is true. The status quo is peaceful. It is China’s desire to subsume Taiwan and unify her with the mainland that is disturbing the peace and causing instability in the Taiwan Strait.
Two: “the provocation of the Taiwan forces.” This implies that Taiwan is the active provocateur, which is not true. President Lai merely reiterated Taiwan’s rights. It is in fact China’s “punishment” drills that stoked instability anew.
Three: The statement as a whole implies that it is Taiwan that is escalating tensions. Again, this is not true. The ROC has not committed any act of aggression towards the CCP for decades. It is in fact China that has made it a practice to intimidate Taiwan by frequently sending military aircraft, including fighter jets and bombers, into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). China upgraded installations of medium-range ballistic missile systems along its southeastern coast, aimed at Taiwan. It regularly simulates blockades and encirclements on Taiwan. China’s acts of escalation against Taiwan have intensified every year since Xi Jinping took power in 2013.
Obvious. Indisputable. Has to be said.
