President-elect Lai Ching-te won’t do anything to make relations with China even lousier, says Alexander Yui Tah-ray, the diplomat who currently represents Taiwan to the United States. (We’re not supposed to call him an “ambassador” to the United States because of the American government’s weirdly contradictory policies regarding Taiwan, according to which it sort of does and sort of doesn’t recognize that Taiwan is a country.)
Associated Press reports that “Taiwan’s new envoy to the U.S. offers assurances to Washington and Beijing” (January 19, 2024).
Taiwan’s top diplomat in Washington has a message for both the island’s Chinese adversaries and its American friends: Don’t worry that Taiwan’s new president-elect will worsen relations with Beijing and possibly draw the U.S. into a conflict….
“We want the status quo. We want the way it is—neither unification [nor] independence. The way it is is the way we want to live right now,” said Yui, Taiwan’s de-facto ambassador to the U.S., noting that the stance is largely supported at home and will guide the new administration.
Yui spoke to the AP five days after Lai won the presidential election with more than 40% of the vote in a three-way race. Lai will succeed outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen when he is inaugurated in May.
Well, that’s fine, except that no matter how delicately and expertly Lai’s administration navigates the high wire, it’s not really up to him or anybody else in Taiwan whether Taiwan’s relations with China get even worse now that the Taiwanese voters have again told the CCP to take a hike. It’s up to the political calculations of the CCP and exactly how mad-dog foaming-at-the-mouth Xi Jinping and other cobblers of Chinese policy feel on any particular morning.
In seeking to deflect China’s wrath, de facto ambassador Yui (shown above) isn’t telling quite the whole truth about Lai’s perspective. Lai has declared that he feels no need to “declare” Taiwan’s independence because Taiwan is already independent: “Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent country, and there is no need to declare independence.” But maybe China is slightly less likely to attack Taiwan if government leaders there are slightly more ambiguous about whether Taiwan is a country than China would be to attack Taiwan if Taiwan were slightly less ambiguous about whether Taiwan is a country.
In other news, “China’s Economic Slump Deprives Xi of Key Weapon Against Taiwan,” according to Newsweek (January 19, 2024):
The cooling Chinese economy is blunting one of Beijing’s favorite coercive weapons against neighboring Taiwan.
Indeed, the world’s second-largest economy, led by Xi Jinping, stands to lose even more leverage as the island’s businesses increasingly look to invest elsewhere.
China reported earlier this week it had met its goal of at least 5 percent GDP growth, exceeding earlier expectations. However, the country still faces economic headwinds such as a low demand for exports, a property market on the ropes, and high youth unemployment.
Maybe China’s GDP has grown by 5 percent, maybe it hasn’t. Many observers are skeptical about China’s official statistics.
Author Micah McCartney adds that “Taiwan invested just $3 billion in China last year—a whopping 40 percent drop year-on-year and a 21-year low, according to local reports.” Is it reasonable to hope that this reduction represents a purposeful implementation—at least by some Taiwanese investors—of step one of STC publisher Paul Jacob’s twelve-step plan for decoupling from China?
In commentary for The Dallas Morning News, a former U.S. senator, Cory Gardner, and a director at the George W. Bush Institute, Igor Khrestin, argue that “Taiwan is a beacon of democracy and we must help protect it” (January 20, 2024):
[A] kinetic conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be catastrophic for all sides.
A recent war game conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies predicted that in such a conflict, the United States would lose 3,200 troops, 10 to 20 surface combatants and two aircraft carriers; the Chinese would lose 10,000 troops, 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships; while Taiwan would be “devastated” and its military “severely degraded.” The economic consequences would be no less catastrophic: Bloomberg News estimates that the conflict would cost the global economy a staggering $10 trillion.
Rock-solid deterrence is the only way to prevent these horrible scenarios from ever materializing. This means the Biden administration needs to stand solidly behind Taiwan’s new government, including by announcing a new significant defensive arms package to Taipei as soon as practicable, increasing our deterrence in the Taiwan Strait and the surrounding areas, and sending high-level official and unofficial delegations to Taipei to show our support.
Meanwhile, in a column for The Washington Times, Don Feder wants to know “Did Taiwan just have its last election?” (January 20, 2024):
President Biden’s reaction to Taiwan’s presidential election was instructive. He could have said that “the United States congratulates Taiwan on another free election” or “the people of Taiwan must determine their future.”
Instead, the president said exactly what Beijing wanted him to say: “We do not support independence” for Taiwan. When Chinese President Xi Jinping pulls the strings, Mr. Biden dances to the tune….
Wherever there’s mischief in the world, the Chinese are involved. Beijing greenlighted Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, which it supports with crude oil purchases. Missiles used by the Houthis are believed to be from China, delivered by Iran.
The Biden administration kowtows furiously to the most dangerous regime in the world. This was illustrated by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s bobblehead performance when she visited Beijing in July. She was there to find common ground, we were told. Instead, we should be drawing a line in the sand.
Feder’s words remind us of a piece by Stephen Mosher on the malignant international influence of China that we have reprinted here at StopTheChinas.org.
Also see:
StopTheChinazis.org: “Video: Why Should Americans Defend Taiwan?” and “Watch: Keep Taiwan Free!”
While visiting Taiwan to observe its January 13, 2024 presidential and legislative elections, Paul Jacob explained why Americans are better off Taiwan survives and why it’s in our interest to help it survive.
StopTheChinazis.org: “Lai Ching-te: ‘We cannot be delusional’ ”
“We have ideals about peace, but we cannot be delusional. Accepting China’s One-China Principle is not real peace. Peace without sovereignty, as in Hong Kong, is a false peace. Therefore, our stance is to build a power of deterrence. This includes strengthening our national defense capabilities, whether in terms of military procurement or bolstering our defense autonomy.”
StopTheChinazis.org: “China Is Stoking a New Cold War With the West” by Stephen W. Mosher
“Su Lin, a prominent Chinese influencer, claimed after the brutal attack that ‘Hamas is still too gentle. Israel is a Jewish version of Nazi and militarism.’
“Such posts would be instantly removed if they contradicted the thinking of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP). But they are encouraged as Beijing tries to undermine Israel—along with much of the rest of the world.”
