William Lai can’t spend even a few days in the paradises of Hawaii and Guam without provoking the ire of the Chinese Communist Party (“Taiwan: How is China reacting to Lai’s ‘transit diplomacy’?,” Deutsche Welle, December 3, 2024). In Hawaii:
No meetings with high-ranking US officials were reported during his two-day stopover, which included an appearance at the US State Department-funded think tank, the East-West Center, during which he gave a speech, albeit after journalists were ushered out of the room.
He also met with Hawaii governor Josh Green at the state’s emergency management agency and attended a banquet with Hawaii congressional representatives and state lawmakers.
Hawaii was Lai’s first stop, before continuing to “official” visits to diplomatic allies the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, which are among 12 remaining countries that recognize Taiwan. He is due to pass through the US island territory of Guam before returning home.
Red lines
DW also says that Republic of China President Lai’s “choosing the remote Hawaii and Guam, and not meeting with any high-ranking US government officials, has been interpreted as providing a symbolic reminder of the importance of US-Taiwan ties, without crossing Beijing’s red lines.” Interpreted by whom?
In response to Lai’s nuanced friendship tour, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning says that China is opposed to “official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan…and any form of the US condoning and supporting Taiwan independence separatists and their separatist actions.”
A spokesman for China’s defense ministry drones that China will “resolutely crush all secessionist attempts for Taiwan independence.”
RAND think-tanker Raymond Kuo has a better grasp of the situation than whoever thinks China won’t get prickly about affirmation of U.S.-Taiwan ties as long as the affirmation is carefully enough muted and calibrated. He “remains skeptical about whether Taiwan’s calculated move will indeed ‘lower the temperature’ for Beijing because China tends to ‘take any small pretext and blow it up to whatever they want it to be.’ ”
Kuo is exactly right. It’s the crazy person or crazy Chinese Communist Party that decides whether to blow up in response to such “provocations” as going on a trip or saying you’re already an independent country or whatever.
The only way for Taiwan to avoid annoying the PRC about the ROC’s de facto independence is to agree to be subjugated by the mainland. But that won’t solve anything for the people of Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party won’t then become nice.
